stl sports

It’s inevitable. All the talk surrounding Colby Rasmus for the past few years may actually result in an actual trade happening. Maybe.

Either way, it’s interesting looking at the comparison between the two young outfielders. Rasmus (24) and Jon Jay (26) are competing for the third outfield spot alongside Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman.

1. Batting

Part of the issue of why people are so frustrated with Rasmus is that he hasn’t lived up to expectations - which were probably too high to begin with - not to mention his batting average has sunk to .244 (His average this month is an astounding .164). And then we get to the glove and the arm, which, well… we’ll get to that section.

Rasmus was touted as a someone with a .300 average, which is a little confusing as he never hit that mark any season in the minors. (He hit .310 for a single A club, but that was one team out of three that season.)

Even though Jay’s strikeout numbers aren’t great - out once every 5.58 AB - it still well outpaces the strikeout machine Rasmus is - once every 4.37 AB. Rasmus can get on base; that has been a strength.

2. Fielding

For qualified outfielders in the NL, FanGraphs.com has Rasmus (-6.8) as the fourth worst, giving up nearly seven runs this season. Jay, who is barely under the qualified mark with 544 innings under his belt, cashes in with 1.6.

Although despite the knock on Rasmus’ arm, FanGraphs has Rasmus right at the average for the National League with Jay having the second-worst arm, only beating Ryan Braun.

So basically, Jay can get where Colby can’t, but can’t throw anyone out once he does.

(SIde note: FanGraphs has Holliday (7.8 UZR) as the second best NL outfielder while Berkman is way down the line at -5.4 UZR)

3. So?

So where does this leave the Cardinals? Colby is a good, not great, piece to trade. But he’s by far the most dispensable on the current roster. Jay would likely slide in center, and the Cardinals would hope the added time hopefully wouldn’t cut into production - although it arguably did last year.

The Pirates are most likely to trade for someone, and the Brewers have already landed K-Rod.

I think Bernie Miklasz had it right in a column a couple weeks back, don’t trade Colby just to trade him. If Rasmus continues to implode, just start Jay in center permanently. Good value needs to be had in return.